In nod to grim U.S. outlook, Fed’s Powell calls for more fiscal support

The pandemic has killed more than 82,000 people in the United States so far, and many epidemiological models now point to a death toll that will surpass 100,000 in a matter of weeks.

Powell pointed to uncertainty over how well future outbreaks of the virus can be controlled and how quickly a vaccine or therapy can be developed and said policymakers needed to be ready to address “a range” of possible outcomes.

“It will take some time to get back to where we were,” Powell said in a webcast interview with Adam Posen, the director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “There is a sense, growing sense I think, that the recovery may come more slowly than we would like. But it will come, and that may mean that it’s necessary for us to do more.”

For a central banker who spent part of his career as a deficit hawk and has tried to avoid giving advice to elected officials, the remarks marked an extraordinary nod to the risks the U.S. economy is facing from the combined health and economic crisis brought on by the pandemic.

The U.S. central bank has slashed interest rates to near zero and set up a broad network of programs to ensure financial markets continue to function during the pandemic. It has also established precedent-setting lending facilities for companies and the first-ever corporate bond purchases.

Congress, for its part, has allocated nearly $3 trillion for economic relief during the crisis.

The U.S. response to date “has been particularly swift and forceful,” Powell said. But the longer those health risks persist, he said, the more likely businesses will fail and households will be strapped for income in a downturn that he noted has fallen most heavily on those least able to cope. A recent Fed survey, Powell said, estimated that 40% of households with less than $40,000 in income included someone who has lost a job since February.

The worst-case outcome leaves the economy mired in “an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes … Additional fiscal support could be costly but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery,” Powell said in what amounted to a direct call for Congress to ramp up its aid during the crisis.

“This trade-off is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending,” he said.